Trainer Charlie Longsdon is bullish about his chance and, on the evidence of the book, he’s a place possible at least… Last year’s Triumph Hurdle winner, Lossiemouth, made a highly impressive return to action here on Trials Day. While she’s the clear favourite and the most likely winner, stepping up to 2m 4f poses a question mark on her stamina. It’s possible that Luccia could be sent on in a bid to force a stronger pace, she herself having made all in the race when her barn mate Iberico flopped; but that’s not her normal run style. And nor should a 140-rated mare be in the same conversation as a 165+ gelding. I retain the faith in him and think he has an excellent chance at a decent price.
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Watching horse races is a big part of British culture for centuries. Just as exciting is horserace betting, which allows you to back your favourite horse and jockey by placing bets at your bookie shop, or log in and place bets on your sports betting website. The Playright team features the best betting sites, and everything you need to know for betting on this sport of kings. The trend factor which had produced 7+ winners and shows the best LSP, an LSP of +68.50 is when runners had 0 career places with the jockey. The worst performing factor that has failed to produce a single winner is when runners had 3 career starts at the track, when backing these the trend shows a record of 0-32. The Flat jockeys’ championship takes winners of both Flat and all-weather races taking place from the start of the Guineas meeting at Newmarket (May 4, 2024) and runs until British Champions Day at Ascot (October 19, 2024).
- This is a different test, more about speed than stamina, though she had the gears to win a couple of lower grade two mile hurdles earlier in her career.
- This is a deep race and there’s plenty with chances including the likes of Corbett Cross and Three Card Brag.
- Likely some, but probably not a huge amount is my best guess.
- The caveat is that we’re looking for a horse that we hope will get an uncontested lead; that is, one which looks as though it is the lone pace angle.
- Also the Cheltenham Festival racing charity fundraiser is set to get going.
- A 10lb rise for that win not only looks lenient – Timeform expected him to get a stone and more – but it creeps him right into the bottom of the handicap.
- Some will suit prominently ridden horses, others those ridden more patiently.
- If it perhaps lacks a little star quality this year – there can’t be a Shishkin/Altior/Douvan every time – it remains competitive from a betting perspective.
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She beat Dinoblue last time out in a listed Mares chase giving her weight and Dinoblue looked the winner of Wednesdays Grand Annual before hitting the last 2 fences and ruining her chance, staying on strongly to finish a good second. This looks very open between the top four or five in the market, none of which would be a surprise winner. Mystical Power and Tullyhill are a coin toss for which one finishes ahead, my suspicion being that Mystical Power might edge that side bet. The former has his trainer’s long term Supreme record very much in his favour, but his trainer’s recent form very much not. On balance, unless he drifts to a double figure price, I’ll let him beat me – if he did drift he’d be playable win only, I think. Slade Steel has a top trainer and top form behind Ballyburn (who was a strong favourite for this before defecting to the Gallagher).
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I’m not totally sold on Stattler for all that he can obviously win. Run Wild Fred looks the one, especially with the striking booking of Jamie Codd. And last year’s Albert Bartlett winner, Vanillier, must also be a contender on that evidence though not on much evidence since. Nicky Henderson saddles Marie’s Rock, who ran a nice race without troubling the judge in the Greatwood Hurdle in November. Subsequently stepped up to this range, she won either side of a non-completion when badly hampered by a faller.
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Nicky Henderson and Willie Mullins each have nine, and the next best of Jonjo O’Neill, with four. Be wary of horses wearing headgear, especially blinkers or cheekpieces, in Open Grade 1’s at the Festival. The link to this market (at the bottom, in the ‘lengthen the odds’ section) is here. His form this campaign is well clear of any other two mile chaser on either side of the Irish Sea.
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Much has been made of the wind operation that prevented him returning to racecourse action until Newbury last month, but it was a minor procedure that he underwent. Altior showed the problem was behind him when soon putting Politologue to the sword that day and winning by four lengths. This was a fine display – close to his best previous form – as Politologue had been in the ascendancy with three smart wins in top class races to his credit.
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Many new sites that launch will want to do so with a bang, and will offer deals that they might not be in the position to offer when they are more well-established. ZENTA is an interesting runner here for the same stable and JP McManus’ retained rider Mark Walsh takes the ride. She jumped very well in France and was picked up for powerful connections. She only made she Irish debut about 3 weeks ago and ploughed through every hurdle but hit the line strong. The overall performance was impressive considering how much she did wrong, and I expect her to massively improve for it.
Honeysuckle – Mares’ Hurdle – 11/8 bet365 (NRNB, BOG)
Whilst it’s perfectly fair to assume he didn’t stay there, the balance of his post-injury form requires a lot to be taken on trust regarding retained ability. Gordon Elliott’s contender, Jalon D’oudairies, boasts an unbeaten record in two bumper starts and is considered a strong prospect for the race after a victory at Leopardstown last time. Elliott also saddles Romeo Coolio, an impressive debut winner at Fairyhouse who looks an exciting prospect for staying hurdles next season.
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Best of the (limited) British defence is probably Mister Coffey, a perma-bridesmaid trained by Nicky Henderson. He’s finished second in five of his last six starts, a run that includes the G1 Scilly Isles Novices’ Chase of last year and the Kim Muir a month later. He looked a strong stayer at last season’s Festival and this test might be just the ticket.
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For a horse with a lot of placed efforts to his name, he kept going strongly to win by three and a quarter lengths from the Wathnan Racing-owned duo of Haunted Dream and Torito. “He’s taking on the older horses, the best sprinters in the world, and he’s held his own against them. He’s only going to improve on that as he gets older, I’m very pleased with the run.
Of stable form, it can be seen from the right hand part of the chart that the Henderson hordes have not been firing at their highest rate in recent months. Nor, mind you, has the win percentage been anything other than aspirational for most other yards. The Brown Advisory would have meant a likely clash with Monkfish, the Arkle a ding dong with Shiskin, Energumene and Allmankind. The Marsh feels a bit like the coward’s route for a horse boasting his CV.
30 Gallagher Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1, 2m5f)
- The 2m 4f distance should bring out more improvement in her.
- He’s got 149 here, as a result of both that win and the recalibration of Irish marks to British ones; while that seems a hefty enough elevation to overcome, the step back up to an extended three miles could be in his favour.
- Most likely is that the top two in the betting will mark each other behind the rags, with Vauban expected to be ridden cold at the back of the field.
- If you’d had the proverbial crystal ball and been able to predict every front-runner at HQ since 2009, you’d have been on to a very good thing as you can see from the table below, taken from geegeez’ Query Tool.
- The ground may ease again slightly with rain forecast before racing commences at 2.10.
- That’s a 3.41% strike rate for a loss of 119 points (ROI -40.61).
- A model of consistency, APT has yet to finish outside of the first three in 13 Rules starts.
- Assuming that all’s well after an absence of just on four months, he sets a high standard here and should be competitive in a higher grade than this Class 4 event in the future.
Despite his relative hurdling experience, IET can look a bit slovenly at a flight for all that he’s generally safe across them. The Ultima is the first handicap of the meeting and is a hyper-competitive race that can throw up some very useful performers. I really don’t like this race from a betting perspective. You have to make excuses for the horses at the top of the market where their price doesn’t allow for such latitude.
30 Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1, 2m 1/2f)
The eight-year-old’s owner, Patricia Pugh, is curator at the Horseracing Museum in Newmarket but in Altior, the Latin for higher, she has a priceless artefact, the star exhibit, a Champion who can rule this division for a couple of years yet. “The foot (Monday’s infection) was nothing,” said a beaming Henderson. “It was of no consequence and when he wasn’t winning round the last bend I wasn’t about to start using that as an excuse. It has been a tough year (with his wind operation) and he’s been missing out but he’s very good, he’s just got gears.
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Promising start chasing home Masekela on debut but pitched into the deep end in Group company at Ascot in June and failed to fire again at Newmarket next time out; back to form beaten a length over C&D; gelded since so can improve again. Third of the four runners during the early stages, Rebel’s Romance challenged entering the final quarter mile and lengthened up the hill to beat stablemate Kemari by a convincing three and three-quarter lengths. A reproduction of that form may well suffice here, with Kemari, Regal Reality and Max Vega taken to fight it out for the minor medals. Luke Harvey, who is the perfect height to get a close view of these things, tells me that Altior’s foot problem can be skipped over, and it is fantastic news that we will see that horse go head-to-head with Douvan. MAHLER MISSION looks a bit of value as the 4m 2d trip and whatever ground he encounters should be fine.
Tiger Roll is only small but stays longer than Matt Chapman on Dancing On Ice and he loves Cheltenham, having completed a bizarre double in the two-mile Triumph Hurdle and four-mile National Hunt Chase here. Racing needs superstars, ITV needs the sport to have superstars, and there is relief all round that we will see racing’s current A-lister, Altior, in the Queen Mother Champion Chase. Mick Fitzgerald knows the time of day at Nicky Henderson’s yard and describes Altior as a rocket who would win the Champion Hurdle, Champion Chase and probably the Champions League if they let him enter it. I’m going to go for MEETINGOFTHEWATERS, he should get the distance fine and you can’t argue with Willie Mullins’ runners in these big races. It’s time for Paddy’s Ultimate Grand National Cheat Sheet taking in insight from everyone including National winning jockey Ruby Walsh.
The Coral-Eclipse looks a one-way Enable fest now that Lord North is out of the race so I’m going elsewhere on the Sandown card on Sunday. O’Brien’s exciting colt produced a massive performance in the Hampton Court Stakes at Royal Ascot, flying home with a withering late run to topple some well-regarded prospects. And with Enable making her long-awaited return in the Coral-Eclipse on Sunday, the stage is set for a sporting showdown to savour. He has shown his best here and went close over course and distance last time out.
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We now only have eight winners, from 291 runners, but an SP profit of 40 points. At BSP, for the reason highlighted above, it becomes a juicy 341 points. Those unaccessorized won 32 handicap chases from 786 runners (4.07%, the lowest in the sample).
Billboard Star brings Group form to the table and gets in here off a lovely racing weight. GET ready for a bit of Jamie Spencer (below) magic on CARRYTHEONE. He looks like he belongs at this level, but conditions would be a concern. English Oaks looked smart when hacking up here in the Buckingham Palace.
The percentage shown is the percentage of the total number of runners who fell under that factor. High percentages are less appealing than lower ones as you would expect them to do well. If that’s correct, we’d expect a steady tempo to the race; after all, if you’re leading without any contention, it makes sense usually to conserve as much energy for the finish as possible. With three or four habitual waited-with sorts in opposition, which if any have shown the ability to quicken off a potentially false gallop? Our Fast Finishers report suggests the well-backed Dingle, but only tentatively at best. The caveat is that we’re looking for a horse that we hope will get an uncontested lead; that is, one which looks as though it is the lone pace angle.
In that context, Shishkin – who has won all of his completed starts, by 8L, 11L, 11L, a neck, 23L, 13L, and 8.5L – looks very fairly priced at 10/3 to win the Arkle by six lengths or more. His trainer is having a wobble just now but knows better than anyone – even Willie M – how to campaign a precocious two-mile chaser. Having ticked the race conditions boxes, and with a pace setup almost certain to play to his A game, he looks a ‘banker’ (relatively speaking). Plenty to chew on in the above ahead of what looks an open and fascinating betting puzzle.
Going a step further, I’d favour run style over draw in certain scenarios which I’ll come on to. And I’d especially favour a horse from a wide gate with an ostensibly uncontested lead. A wide-open renewal of this race, but it is still very hard to get away from GOOBINATOR. Donald McCain’s 5-year-old finished 4th in the Cesarewitch behind Buzz at Newmarket last month, beaten 8-lengths and on that evidence, he looks to be exceptionally well-handicapped on a mark of 126 over hurdles. He won under Brian Hughes at Ayr last October, on the same mark as he can race off today and he looks to have a favourites chance.
But he’s no bargain, especially if his jockey – presumably Rachael Blackmore though she has another option – allows others a head start. O’Faolains Boy set a fair but not searing tempo, aided and abetted by Smad Place, in 2016, the beneficiary of which was the handily-ridden Don Cossack. And in 2015, Coneygree made every yard under an inspired ride from Nico de Boinville. De Boinville’s measurement of pace there was brilliant, saving enough to repel a brace of Irish challengers up the hill to the line. In 2018, Native River won from Might Bite, the pair engaging in a ding-dong skirmish from flag fall; in theory, both should have wilted and been passed. This was definitely not a winner I could have found as it looked on paper beforehand that they’d have at it exactly as they did, an approach in this sort of cauldron which typically spells c-u-r-t-a-i-n-s.
Hovering over the coloured blobs in the ‘Race Speed vs Par’ column (title unhelpfully obscured in the image above), shows the sectional percentages for our OMC (Opening / Mid-race / Closing) format. Identifying front runners is is a challenge, but these tables articulate unequivocally why it is worth our time to attempt that act of clairvoyance. Geegeez Pace Maps, available for every race, assist considerably with the challenge. Day 2 of the Cheltenham festival has been equally as magical as day 1, as we really have been treated to some incredible action. The best meetings are broadcast on either ITV or ITV4, with racing broadcast every single Saturday afternoon, plus lots of big festival meetings (like the famous Cheltenham Festival in March) which are staged through the week.
She was second in the Mare’s Novice Hurdle in 2021 and was a well beaten in last year’s Arkle but that was a much better race than this. She’s had four runs since that Arkle, winning twice and second twice. She’s genuine and always runs her race and still only a 7-year-old there is plenty of improvement to come from her I feel.
He really had to step at a few of the obstacles, but his engine proved far superior to his other graded rivals. Connections probably have eyes on the Gold Cup 2022 after that Cheltenham Festival Day 2 Winners display. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
- A test as unique as the Cheltenham Gold Cup makes it something of a specialist’s race.
- Even allowing a little latitude in the ‘potato race’, the four rags came from a total population of 336 horses sent off greater than 16/1.
- Again, he’s not necessarily a bad price even though he’s a short price.
- Choosing between his entries is not easy and Delta Work might well be the one.
- And so, enfin, let us peruse the past performances, in approximate market rank order.
- Fancied runners such as Protektorat and A Plus Tard would do well not to gift easy lengths to talented rivals by lagging behind in the first half of the race.
He had his warm up for this when cantering home in a two-runner Limited Handicap at Newcastle, against a rival receiving 19lb, and I think he has every chance of outrunning his odds here. I just wish we had eight runners for that 3rd each way place. The lightly-raced mare Magic Daze has been fairly well supported but I’m struggling to see her case. She was Bolts Up Daily second in the Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle last season before finishing only fourth in a Listed mares’ event at Punchestown. Over fences, she’s one from three so far and she lacks obvious upside to my eye. Perhaps more interesting of the longer-priced Irish runners is Coeur Sublime, who ran in open Grade 1 hurdles last year and was rated 152 in that sphere.
HIDDENVALLEY LAKE is one I have had my eye on for this race for quite a while. He will appreciate a stamina test; a good pace and soft ground and I think he will get it here. He was a good winner of a Naas maiden hurdle before backing that up with winning a Grade 3 hurdle at Cork on only his second start.
They are 0 from 22, though then nine-year-old Whisper nearly benefited from Might Bite’s errant course up the hill last year in the RSA Chase. It is worth noting that nine of those 22 were priced at 7/1 or shorter. That would have netted 36 winners from 180 runners (20% strike rate, 69% race win strike rate) and a level stakes profit of 46.48 points at Starting Price. Moreover, the approach was profitable in eight of the ten years, exceptions being 2016 and 2009.
He’s since won another five Supremes, each ridden by the stable jockey (Ruby four times, Paul Townend once). That Paul has opted for Tullyhill is a potential red herring this year because Mystical Power has a retained jockey – and there is nothing to separate them in the market as I write (Sunday afternoon). Well, classy types have a decent record in the race and Ballyadam, despite the steadier of twelve stone, has bundles of it. A hard task off top weight, but definitely one for those exacta and trifecta mixes.
I suspect Latin Verse can similarly show that experience is no bad thing when it comes to the Boodles. At 33-1 and six places, he has to be worth a few quid each-way. Iberico Lord was supplemented for this after the defection of stablemate Constitution Hill, and he has serious handicap winning form this term. Specifically, he won the Greatwood over course and distance in November and then the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury in February.